Coping with worst loss at home

It’s been a tough weekend, not least because Tar Heels lost at home. Sometimes I feel like I’m vested too much in the outcome of the Heel’s basketball games, and if my emotional rollercoaster the rest of the weekend gives any clue, I probably am, just a litttle bit. I tried to shake it off, yet it wasn’t particularly easy, not only because we lost at home, but because the loss was the worst one at home under Roy Williams. So I turn to blogging, after 100+ days of hiatus, as a last resort to restoring my inner peace and calm, before the new workday begins.

First I look at a couple of worst of the worst losses at home (to make the last loss less painful).

Table 1: 10 worst home loss since 1949-50 season
Season Game_Date Opponent_School Tm Opp lost_by
1964 1964-02-29 Duke 69 104 35
2002 2002-01-31 Duke 58 87 29
1951 1950-12-20 Eastern Kentucky 62 85 23
1955 1955-02-04 Duke 68 91 23
1975 1975-02-15 Maryland 74 96 22
2002 2002-01-05 Wake Forest 62 84 22
1953 1953-02-21 North Carolina State 66 87 21
1999 1999-02-27 Duke 61 81 20
2002 2002-01-23 North Carolina State 59 77 18
1970 1970-02-21 South Carolina 62 79 17

Sure enough, 4 losses to Duke (gee, a loss by 35!) and a couple to State (a loss by 21, which matches the weekend’s loss margin). At this point, I’m realizing this is not particularly going to help me feel better about the weekend’s loss. Worse, it might exacerbate the wound, but I decide to keep going. What’s all the home losses look like?

Turns out, of the 122 total home losses (since 1949-50 season), loss by 4 is the most frequent (14 games), followed by loss by 1 (13 games). Sure, Duke won the most with 25 wins against UNC, followed by State (16), Wake Forest (15), and Maryland (13). Other than these 4 schools, no schools have won at UNC more than 6 times since 1949-50 season. I’m already starting to feel a little better. While at it, I decide to look at how Duke’s home loss look like for the heck of it.

Table 2: 10 worst home loss since 1949-50 season
Season Game_Date Opponent_School Tm Opp lost_by
1959 1958-12-29 Michigan State 57 82 25
1960 1960-02-27 North Carolina 50 75 25
1973 1973-02-21 North Carolina State 50 74 24
1975 1975-01-27 North Carolina State 71 95 24
1975 1975-02-08 Maryland 80 104 24
1983 1983-03-05 North Carolina 81 105 24
1989 1989-01-18 North Carolina 71 91 20
1960 1960-02-20 Wake Forest 64 83 19
1974 1974-01-23 Wake Forest 71 90 19
1950 1950-02-24 North Carolina 46 64 18

Turns out, of the 135 Duke’s home losses (since 1949-50 season), Carolina beat them 29 times, followed by State (21), Wake Forest (15), Maryland (14), and Virginia (9). Other than these 5 schools, no schools have beat Duke more than 6 times since 1949-50 season.

Another way to look at how sweet home games have been since Roy Williams came home might be to look at how rare the home losses have been.

Table 3: Home loss since 2003-04 season
Season Game_Date Opponent_School Tm Opp lost_by
2013 2013-03-09 Duke 53 69 16
2010 2010-01-31 Virginia 60 75 15
2010 2010-01-20 Wake Forest 69 82 13
2015 2015-02-24 North Carolina State 46 58 12
2006 2006-01-14 Miami 70 81 11
2008 2008-02-06 Duke 78 89 11
2015 2015-02-02 Virginia 64 75 11
2010 2010-02-10 Duke 54 64 10
2010 2010-02-24 Florida State 67 77 10
2013 2013-01-10 Miami 59 68 9
2006 2006-01-25 Boston College 74 81 7
2009 2009-01-04 Boston College 78 85 7
2015 2015-03-07 Duke 77 84 7
2014 2014-01-08 Miami 57 63 6
2004 2003-12-20 Wake Forest 114 119 5
2015 2014-12-03 Iowa 55 60 5
2006 2005-11-29 Illinois 64 68 4
2006 2006-02-07 Duke 83 87 4
2018 2017-12-20 Wofford 75 79 4
2018 2018-01-27 North Carolina State 91 95 4
2014 2013-11-17 Belmont 80 83 3
2014 2013-12-18 Texas 83 86 3
2018 2018-02-27 Miami 88 91 3
2004 2004-02-05 Duke 81 83 2
2008 2008-01-19 Maryland 80 82 2
2010 2010-01-16 Georgia Tech 71 73 2
2007 2007-02-13 Virginia Tech 80 81 1
2012 2012-02-08 Duke 84 85 1
2015 2015-01-05 Notre Dame 70 71 1
2016 2016-02-17 Duke 73 74 1

Ok, a good start. There’s been only 30 home losses since 2003-04 season, approximately 2 home losses per season. Only 2 down days over a 4 months period each season. Put it that way, I feel like I can survive this weekend’s L.

Since 2003-04 season, again loss by 1 and 4 were most frequent, each with 4 games. Not surprisingly, Duke has won 8 games at UNC, and somewhat surprisingly, Miami has second most wins at UNC since RW came home. This weekend’s win gives Louisville its first win at Carolina, it looks like.

In addition to the worst home loss in 16 years, what made things worse for me personally was the fact that Duke won their game against Florida State later same day. Again, this is just me, but after the home loss, I was begging for Florida State to win their home game, so that I can have somewhat so-so weekend even with the home loss, even though I knew how rare such event was.

Table 4: Carolina L and Duke W on same day since 1949-50 season
Season Game_Date Opponent_School Tm Opp lost_by
2018 2017-12-20 Wofford 75 79 4
2015 2014-12-03 Iowa 55 60 5
2009 2009-01-04 Boston College 78 85 7
2008 2008-01-19 Maryland 80 82 2
2006 2006-01-14 Miami 70 81 11
2004 2003-12-20 Wake Forest 114 119 5
2003 2002-12-07 Kentucky 81 98 17
2002 2001-11-20 Davidson 54 58 4
2001 2000-12-02 Kentucky 76 93 17
2000 2000-01-22 Florida State 71 76 5
1999 1999-01-13 Maryland 76 89 13
1989 1989-01-07 Iowa 97 98 1
1970 1970-02-21 South Carolina 62 79 17
1968 1968-02-28 South Carolina 86 87 1
1966 1966-02-12 Virginia Tech 75 81 6
1966 1965-12-31 West Virginia 97 102 5
1963 1963-02-09 Wake Forest 71 72 1
1962 1962-02-10 Wake Forest 80 87 7
1962 1961-12-11 Indiana 70 76 6
1953 1953-02-21 North Carolina State 66 87 21
1952 1952-01-26 North Carolina State 53 58 5
1950 1950-02-07 Wake Forest 54 57 3

Ok, 22 such days when Carolina lost at home while Duke won on the same day since 1949-50 season. And only 6 such days since 2003-04 season. Make it 7 with this weekend’s case, but nevertheless at the end of the day, an L is an L, and we had two road Ws before this L, and I hope the team shook it off well over the weekend. Writing this post definitely helped me feel a whole lot better about this weekend and get ready for a new day tomorrow!